Logic or lack thereof
Aug. 9th, 2020 08:46 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
blueeowynThe State of Virginia is in Phase3 of reopening (I think). One of their rules is no outdoor gatherings of more than 1000 people. As a result of this, Kings Dominion has announced that they will not open this year at all. Busch Gardens is having a beer event with some rides but limited rides. I don't know if the 1000 includes employees.
Given that KD has 59 rides (14 are water rides) and most rides require at least 2 ops (most more, handful less). Assume they need around 120 ride ops to run just the rides at any one time, 250/day is more likely with breaks and the number that have 3 or more (not counting the water rides which often have extras). Then figure an equal number to do food, games, janitor. That is 500 employees (I suspect it is more like 750) which may count against the total ... even if it doesn't, I can tell you that MDRF feels empty with only 1000 people, KD would feel frighteningly quiet. There is no way that the income from 1000 people (some of whom would be pass holders and likely only buying food) would cover the salaries of those 500-750 people.
What is currently boggling my mind is that there is a limit of 1000 in a large outdoor venue but schools can open. My graduating class (just my class) was 998 alive and 2 seats held for the 2 who died while we were in highschool. Thus the student population was probably around 4000 ... indoors ... spread across 1 main building, 1 annex (everyone in the Annex was in the main building 1/2 of the day) and maybe 2 temp buildings with lots of class changes. Even with 1/2 of the population home, that is still twice what KD is allowed and I can assure you that KD could have social distancing much more easily than the school could.
Given that KD has 59 rides (14 are water rides) and most rides require at least 2 ops (most more, handful less). Assume they need around 120 ride ops to run just the rides at any one time, 250/day is more likely with breaks and the number that have 3 or more (not counting the water rides which often have extras). Then figure an equal number to do food, games, janitor. That is 500 employees (I suspect it is more like 750) which may count against the total ... even if it doesn't, I can tell you that MDRF feels empty with only 1000 people, KD would feel frighteningly quiet. There is no way that the income from 1000 people (some of whom would be pass holders and likely only buying food) would cover the salaries of those 500-750 people.
What is currently boggling my mind is that there is a limit of 1000 in a large outdoor venue but schools can open. My graduating class (just my class) was 998 alive and 2 seats held for the 2 who died while we were in highschool. Thus the student population was probably around 4000 ... indoors ... spread across 1 main building, 1 annex (everyone in the Annex was in the main building 1/2 of the day) and maybe 2 temp buildings with lots of class changes. Even with 1/2 of the population home, that is still twice what KD is allowed and I can assure you that KD could have social distancing much more easily than the school could.
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Date: 2020-08-11 12:56 am (UTC)For example, let's say gatherings of 10,000 are permitted. That might let KD open, which with social distancing and attention to cleaning might be OK. That would also probably let things like Wolf Trap and Jiffy Lube run with reasonable limits on attendance and other safety measures. But, at that point, it also lets a certain President hold political rallies, or permits a motorcycle rally like the one in SD, or a megachurch like the one on Route 7 holding a big service/revival outside on their campus, all with no masks or social distancing. Which is obviously a problem.
no subject
Date: 2020-08-11 01:53 am (UTC)One argument would be that KD (or Busch Gardens) will draw from a larger area and thus encourage traveling, possibly from North Carolina which is a problem. I think I heard that Busch was arguing that because they are outdoors and can do distancing (some parks that are open allow front seat of a car and the other 2 are empty thus 6 feet between groups) that they should be allowed more people (it may have been 5000) across the park but would still be a fraction of their capacity. Wolf Trap is open for drive in movies (I think) but not for concerts. The rule is 50% or 1000 patrons, whichever is lower and is applied to (among others): zoos, botanical gardens, bowling alleys, trampoline parks, arcades, escape rooms, movie theaters, drive in theaters, carnivals, and arts & crafts venues. With the exception of zoos, most of these are likely to have maximum capacity of maybe 2000 (many would be much less ... I would imagine 40 for a really large escape room complex).
I think that Busch and KD would have done a good job of the social distancing (Busch is open for a beer event) and would have insisted on masks and enforced it. Six Flags is open at a limited capacity (I don't know what the limit is) and says that they are requiring masks and distancing, however, given how uninterested in following rules some of the visitors to Six Flags are, I'm not risking a visit. I forget where I saw something open with masks suggested for young kids but not required (most places are requiring for kids over 2).
The motorcycle rally is a problem and obviously indoor rallies are a problem unless they have very limited capacity AND social distancing AND masks required. I was a bit surprised to hear that the concert version of JC Superstar is running in August in the UK ... I really don't know how that will work (for the cast/crew).